世界杯小球2怎么赢？
1. 买西班牙让半球，如果输了，赔率是1：0.75；
2. 赌德国胜沙特，赔率大约是1：3；
3. 最后再赌一个德国输西班牙的小球，赔率大约是1：0.6左右。 这个方法应该可以赚点吧……不过其实这个组合的胜负很难说的啦~
=====分割线===== 关于“小概率事件”和“赌博”的问题： 记得看过一篇很不错的科普文章， 讲的就是关于彩票啊还有抛硬币啊之类的小概率事件的。 感觉挺有帮助的！ 下面将那篇文章大致的翻译过来， 因为是英文原文所以可能有语法错误啦大家将就着看啦～ 题目叫《为什么你不该把全部家当都扔进彩票箱》（Why you shouldn't gamble all your money on lotteries） The lottery is the great myth of our time， said Nobel Laureate Kenneth Arrow in a lecture to Princeton alumni last year(pdf)．"A small percentage goes to winners and the rest is used for various public purposes，" he explained. "It requires no taxation (or redirection from other public funds)， and it has a very high social rate of return. What could be wrong with that？ " The problem， as everyone knew but few were willing to say out loud until now，is that there are no such things as free lunches or free money．In this case， what may appear to be an efficient redistribution scheme is actually nothing more than legalized bribery：a kind of mass extortion that can only continue by fostering people’s irrational hopes．
Arrow was referring specifically to state-run lotteries like those offered by Harvard University， which donates its proceeds entirely to education causes， despite their near universal popularity among students. But while these lotteries may offer moral cover because they are tax-free， they nonetheless constitute the same basic form of bribery that plagues governments everywhere：the promise that tomorrow will bring prosperity if you give away today’s money．And since most taxpayers believe themselves to be unlucky losers instead of lucky winners when it comes to getting rich quick， they feel little compunction about subsidizing others’ dreams. In fact， studies show that taxes paid voluntarily are much less objectionable than those levied against the people through the law．
As I wrote earlier this month， even though nobody can prove the existence of luck， people have still managed to find ways around having to pay for it through some rather ingenious mathematical models．But given humans’ limited capacity to use numerical reasoning， it should come as no surprise